A latent Markov model for detecting patterns of criminal activity

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Bartolucci, Francesco; Pennoni, Ful; Francis, Brian
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), Volume 170, Number 1, January 2007, pp. 115-132(18)
" The paper investigates the problem of determining patterns of criminal behaviour from official criminal histories, concentrating on the variety and type of offending convictions. [..] Through this model, we analyse the conviction histories of a cohort of offenders who were born in England and Wales in 1953. The final model identifies five latent classes and specifies common transition probabilities for males and females between 5-year age periods, but with different initial probabilities." [Sub required]