At this stage in 2010, all eyes are on the upcoming election, which our latest polls suggest is getting tighter. So this seems an opportune moment to take stock of the state of public opinion as voters face a decision that will set the direction of the economy, public spending and the shape of many public services, possibly for years to come.
On the eve of a general election campaign, we offer this review partly as a synthesis of our work on the major issues of the last year, partly as an interpretation of what seem to be the crucial dynamics of 2010. We’ve grouped these into three big themes: Politics, Public Services and Society.
At the end of 2009, most people’s money would have been on a Conservative victory. Now, however, a whole series of polls are suggesting a hung parliament is still a possibility (though evidence that the Tories are performing better in the marginals still puts them in the driving seat). But whichever party wins, it is certain that the economic crisis will dictate a tightening of belts, and significantly lower public spending at some point soon. At the minimum public services will have to significantly adapt, and there is a good chance that many will need to be radically reshaped – but this may not be a bad thing; in the well-worn words of various US Democrats, we should never waste a good crisis.
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