Performance of statistical models to predict mental health and substance abuse cost / BMC Medical Research Methodology, 6, 2006

http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2288/6/53
Montez-Rath M., Christiansen C.L., Ettner S.L., Loveland S., Rosen A.K.
"This article examines the predictive ability of several statistical models for risk-adjustment, demonstrates how model choice depends on the goal for the predictive model, and examines whether building models on samples of the data affects model choice."

[Provisional] PDF - http://www.biomedcentral.com/content/pdf/1471-2288-6-53.pdf